Lottery Expected Value Calculator
Is a lottery ticket ever “worth it”? Calculate its expected value from the jackpot and odds — the math behind why the house always wins.
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Expected value is what a ticket is worth on average across millions of plays: the jackpot times your tiny chance of winning, minus the ticket price. For big lotteries it’s deeply negative — and even the rare “positive EV” jackpot is erased once you account for taxes and the chance of splitting the prize.
How it’s calculated & sources
Expected value = jackpot ÷ odds − ticket price (a simplified view that ignores smaller prizes). Break-even jackpot = ticket price × odds — the jackpot at which EV would turn positive before taxes.
Benchmark: lotteries are negative-expected-value bets by design; the jackpot rarely approaches the break-even point, and taxes plus splitting push it lower.
Results update as you type and are general estimates, not personalized financial, tax, medical or legal advice. Verify with a professional.
Worked example
A $2 ticket on a $500M jackpot at 1-in-292M odds has an expected value of about −$0.29 — you’d need a ~$584M jackpot just to break even before taxes.
Frequently asked questions
So lotteries are always a bad bet?
Mathematically, on average, yes — the expected value is negative. Many people still enjoy a small flutter for fun; the key is to treat it as entertainment, not investing.
Does a bigger jackpot make it worth it?
It improves the EV, but rollovers that grow the jackpot also draw more players, raising the odds of splitting — which quietly cancels much of the benefit.